Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Cleveland Cavaliers -5

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings.  After getting blown out in consecutive road losses in Orlando, I expect the Cavaliers to respond in a big way at home tonight.  I also think we are getting them at a discount off those blowout losses considering they were 5.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 at home.

The Magic are 31-11 at home this season but just 18-26 on the road.  This is a very young Magic team that struggles more on the road than most would.  That's especially going to be the case in this hostile Game 5 atmosphere in Cleveland. The Magic managed just 83 points in Game 1 and 86 points in Game 2 on the road, losing both by double-digits.  

Cleveland is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Cavaliers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -134

The Los Angeles Angels are playing like the team most thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games overall and just gave up a total of 27 runs in two games over the weekend to the Twins.

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing what they are capable of, which is one of the best teams in baseball.  They have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and have now scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games.  They are raking at the plate right now.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Tyler Anderson, who is very fortunate to have the numbers he has to this point.  Anderson has 21 K's in 30 1/3 innings and doesn't have elite stuff at all.  Anderson has allowed 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.

Spencer Turnbull is the real deal for the Phillies.  He has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs and 23 base runners in 27 innings with 30 K's, showing he has elite stuff with this K numbers.

The Angels are 1-9 at home with a line of +125 to -125 this season.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Astros OVER 9

The Cleveland Guardians are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season including 5.2 runs per game on the road.  The Houston Astros are scoring 4.8 runs per game at home.  Both offenses should have their way against these two awful starting pitchers tonight.

Hunter Brown is 0-4 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 44 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Carlos Carrasco is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 38 base runners in 23 1/3 innings.  Carrasco has allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.

Cleveland is 8-1 OVER against AL West opponents this season.  Houston is 8-0 OVER in its last eight home games after allowing 4 runs or fewer in four consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles tonight.  It's going to be 85 degrees at game time with 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Orioles are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season while the Yankees are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road.  These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and both are hot right now.

The Yankees scored 30 runs in two games over the weekend and have now scored at least 6 runs in four of their last six games overall.  The Orioles have scored at least 6 runs in three of their last five, and 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 15 games overall.

Nestor Cortes is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in three road starts this season.  Dean Kremer is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two home starts.  Kremer is 2-3 with a 5.04 ERA in nine career starts against the Yankees.  Cortes allowed 4 runs and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 9-6 loss to the Orioles in his last start against them.

The Yankees are 12-3 OVER in their last 15 road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less.  The OVER is 15-5 in Kremer's last 20 starts in the first half of the season.  The OVER is 13-1 in Kremer's last 14 starts against a AL team that hits .255 or worse.  The OVER is 10-0 in Kremer's last 10 starts against a AL team that slugs .410 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Padres OVER 7.5

The Cincinnati Reds have a potent lineup that is scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The San Diego Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses tonight.

Nick Martinez is 0-1 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 27 base runners in 16 innings.  Yu Darvish is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts for the Padres, allowing 10 earned runs in 15 innings.  Both starters are getting too much respect tonight.

Cincinnati is 16-5 OVER in its last 21 road games after allowing 2 runs or less.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -110

The Los Angeles Dodgers want revenge after getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in three games in the playoffs last year to end their season.  The won Game 1 8-4 last night, and I expect them to crush the Diamondbacks again in Game 2 tonight.

I like what I've seen from Landon Knack, who is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts for the Dodgers this season.  Knack will be up against an ice cold Arizona lineup that has scored a total of 10 runs in their last five games for an average of just 2.0 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks hitting .208 and scoring 3.7 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are hitting .275 and scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  I expect them to get to Jordan Montgomery, who signed late with the Diamondbacks and is behind the eight ball.  Montgomery is 0-2 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

Montgomery's teams are 1-8 (-10.6 Units) in his last nine starts when the total is 9 to 9.5 runs.  Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Cavaliers UNDER 202

This has been a defensive series as both teams are struggling to make outside shots, and both are playing at a snail's pace.  The UNDER is 3-1 in this series with 180, 182, 204 and 201 combined points in the four games.  Both teams in Cleveland were the very low-scoring games with 180 and 182 combined points.

With this series tied 2-2, you know the defensive intensity will be there tonight.  The Magic just struggle scoring on the road putting up 83 and 86 points in their two games in Cleveland.  I don't expect them to have much offensive success in this one.  They shot 55.8% in Game 4 and 51.1% in Game 3 at home, but just 32.6% in Game 1 and 36.2% in Game 2 in Cleveland.

Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The New York Knicks are the better team in this series.  I cashed the Knicks in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Philadelphia and grabbed a stranglehold on this series.  You could tell it sucked the life out of the 76ers, especially since New York fans took over the building.

Joel Embiid made excuses and called out Philadelphia fans after the game.  You can tell the 76ers are rattled.  Now Embiid had a migraine this morning and missed shootaround.  It's going to be 1-2-3 Cancun for the 76ers regardless of whether or not he plays tonight.

Few teams have a home-court advantage as strong as the Knicks right now.  These fans are hungry for playoff success and this is one of their favorite teams ever.  You can see why because the chemistry on the Knicks is perfect, and these guys love playing for one another.  Jalen Brunson is a star and scored a franchise record 47 points in a playoff game to close out the 76ers in Game 4.

Even if Embiid goes, he is not conditioned very well right now and there is only one day in between games.  The 76ers just rely on him and Maxey to do everything for them.  There's no depth on this team, Buddy Hield isn't even playing, and the 76ers are cooked.  I expect a blowout win in favor of the Knicks tonight in Game 5 to close out this series.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Angels are playing like the team most thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have gone 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and just lost Mike Trout to a torn meniscus.  He was having a great season and the lone bright spot on this team.

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing what they are capable of, which is one of the best teams in baseball.  They have gone 12-3 in their last 15 games overall and have now scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games.  They are raking at the plate right now.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Patrick Sandoval, who is 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 49 base runners in 27 innings.  Philadelphia has a big advantage on the mound behind ace Zack Wheeler, who is 2-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 32 base runners in 37 1/3 innings with 46 K's.

The Angels are 2-14 in Sandoval's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record and getting outscored by 4.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 1-10 in Sandoval's last 11 home starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5 runs and getting outscored by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles tonight.  It's going to be 80 degrees at game time with light winds blowing out to right-center at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Orioles are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season while the Yankees are scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road.  These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and both are hot right now.

The Yankees scored 30 runs in two games over the weekend and have now scored at least 6 runs in four of their last seven games overall.  The Orioles have scored at least 4 runs or more in 14 of their last 16 games overall.  Both offenses have been held in check in this series thus far, but I expect them to explode in Game 3.

Corbin Burnes has already allowed 5 homers in 35 1/3 innings, while Luis Gil has control issues with 19 walks in 24 2/3 innings.  This total of 8.5 is too low for these two offenses this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -134

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated to win this series against the Arizona Diamondbacks after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year.  They won 8-4 in Game 1 but lost 4-3 in extras last night.  I expect them to take Game 3 tonight with their advantage on the mound and at the plate.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant since losing to the Padres in Japan in the opener.  He is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 6 earned runs in 27 innings with 35 K's.

Jordan Montgomery got off to a late start this season after being signed late by the Diamondbacks.  After facing the Cardinals and Giants in his first two starts this season, Montgomery takes a big step up in class here against the Dodgers.  He is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles while allowing 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 3-10 off a win this season.  The Dodgers are 54-23 in their last 77 games off a loss.  Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Padres OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have a potent lineup that is scoring 4.9 runs per game.  The San Diego Padres are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses with 10 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to right-center in San Diego this afternoon.

Joe Musgrove consistently gets too much respect from the books and is with this low total again today.  Musgrove is 3-3 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 27 earned runs, 9 homers and 58 base runners in 35 innings with only 27 K's.  The OVER is 5-2 in Musgrove's seven starts and the OVER is 7-2 in Musgrove's last nine starts against Cincinnati.

Graham Ashcraft is 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 28 2/3 innings.  The Padres are scoring 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starters this season and should get to Ashcraft today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -2.5

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won twice already.  The Clippers have one of the worst home-court advantages in the NBA.  The Mavericks are simply the better team in this series and that will show in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers were able to steal Game 4 in Dallas thanks to shooting an unsustainable percentage.  They shot 53.7% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-29 (62.1%) from 3.  Yet they still blew a 31-point lead and were life and death in a 116-111 victory.  Shooting regression will work against them in Game 5, and the Mavericks will grab a stranglehold in this series.

The Clippers could have made a title run with a healthy Kawhi Leonard, but he sat out Game 4 and is likely out for the rest of this series as his knee just hasn't responded like he was hoping it would.  And without Kawhi, the Mavericks are by far the superior team.  Even if he decides to play the Clippers have lost both games with him in the lineup.

Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  The Clippers are 7-19 ATS off a road win this season.  The Mavericks are 19-6 ATS as road favorites this season.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Wednesday.